Before any settlement, restructure, or negotiation, we build the same artifact: a 13-week direct cash flow forecast. It is the single most important document in the file because it establishes — in numbers — what the business can sustain.
Why 13 weeks
Thirteen weeks is short enough that every line is forecastable from real bookings, contracts, and recurring expenses; long enough to capture the next quarter's seasonality. Anything shorter is reactive. Anything longer hides assumptions.
The five rows
- Beginning operating cash (real bank balance)
- Cash inflows: collections from existing AR, contracted recurring revenue, expected new sales (with explicit confidence)
- Operating outflows: payroll, rent, utilities, COGS — all the must-pays
- Debt service: every MCA, term loan, lease, vendor obligation listed by week
- Ending operating cash (carries to next week's opener)
What it tells us
The forecast tells us what the business can sustainably pay each week — which becomes the floor of every settlement we negotiate. Funders are far more likely to accept a settlement that is documented as the maximum sustainable payment than one that's pulled from a story. The spreadsheet is the story.
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